Sensor based system and method for augmenting underwriting of insurance policies

ABSTRACT

Techniques for detecting physical conditions at a physical premises from collection of sensor information from plural sensors execute one or more unsupervised learning models to continually analyze the collected sensor information to produce operational states of sensor information, produce sequences of state transitions, detect during the continual analysis of sensor data that one or more of the sequences of state transitions is a drift sequence, correlate determined drift state sequence to a stored determined condition at the premises, and generate an alert based on the determined condition. Various uses are described for these techniques.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED PATENT APPLICATIONS

This application is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No.14/870,463, filed Sep. 30, 2015, the entire disclosure of which isincorporated by reference herein.

BACKGROUND

This description relates to operation of sensor networks such as thoseused for security, intrusion and alarm systems installed on industrialor commercial or residential premises.

It is common for businesses to have various types of systems such asintrusion detection, fire detection and surveillance systems fordetecting various alarm conditions at their premises and signaling theconditions to a monitoring station or authorized users. Other systemsthat are commonly found in businesses are access control systems havecard readers and access controllers to control access, e.g., open orunlock doors, etc. These systems use various types of sensors such asmotion detectors, cameras, and proximity sensors, thermal, optical,vibration sensors and so forth.

SUMMARY

Companies develop, deploy, monitor and service various types of suchequipment for controlling access to and protecting of physical premises,such as fire protection products, intrusion products, video surveillanceproducts, access control products, etc. Those products typically areaccessed via a dedicated panel that resides in the building or via aremote application such as on a mobile device. The data regarding howthe product is being used is saved, but that data only resides in theproduct's memory or in a related electronic log. For example,information regarding when a user turns on their intrusion system, orwhich zones that they bypass is only recorded in the physical system.Likewise, information regarding how and when the system is serviced isonly kept by the owner of the equipment and by the servicing company.

Such data records contain valuable information that is typically usedfor a very limited number of purposes. Described herein is a system thatmines accumulated data and geographically related data to producepredictions with respect to a risk level that either equipment or auser's actions relative to the equipment pose to the premises and/or theequipment.

According to an aspect, a computer program product tangibly stored on acomputer readable hardware storage device for underwriting of insurancebased upon data received from the sensors and service records includesinstructions to cause a processor to collect sensor information fromplural sensors deployed in a premises, continually analyze the collectedsensor information by one or more unsupervised learning models tocontinually analyze operational characteristics of the premises andproduce operational states of sensor information, produce sequences ofstate transitions from the operational states, detect during thecontinual analysis that one or more of the produced sequences of statetransitions is a drift state sequence, form a prediction an event in theform of an alert, which is based on the detected drift state sequence,evaluate in real time by an automated underwriting system the predictedevent against a particular insurance company's unique set ofunderwriting guidelines and adjust rates based on the evaluation.

Aspects also include systems and methods.

Additional features of the computer program product, systems and methodsmay include these and other features.

Aspects include to send adjusted rates to an external system. Aspectsreceive a verification from an automated underwriting process thatprocesses a customer application for insurance confirmation of aprovision in an underwritten policy that allows the insurance company toaccept state data from a third party entity system and/or sensor dataand service record data that originate at the insured premises. Aspectsevaluate the predicted changes against specific sensor-basedunderwriting rules are generated for the specific policy type and sendresults of evaluation of the predicted changes by the sensor-basedunderwriting rules to an automatic underwriting system.

One or more of the aspects may include one or more of the followingadvantages. Aspects can be used to augment insurance underwriting basedupon actual data received from sensors and service records. Thus, inaddition to or rather than merely having a customer fill out an on-lineInternet form or paper form for applying for insurance and having thatdata used to underwrite, without any follow-up, the augmentedunderwriting insurance process provides a continuous underwritingprocess for insured premises that verifies states and conditions ofinsured premises and insured systems/equipment.

The details of one or more embodiments of the invention are set forth inthe accompanying drawings and the description below. Other features,objects, and advantages of the invention is apparent from thedescription and drawings, and from the claims.

DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an exemplary networked security system.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a sensor.

FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of an example security system at premises.

FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing an example of an access controlsystem.

FIG. 4A is a diagram depicting a conventional arrangement for accesscontrol.

FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a sensor based state prediction system.

FIG. 5A is a diagram of a logical view of the sensor based stateprediction system of FIG. 5.

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram of a state representation engine.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram of sensor based state prediction systemprocessing.

FIG. 7A is a flow diagram of training process for a Next state predictorengine that is part of the sensor based state prediction system.

FIG. 7B is a flow diagram of a Next state predictor engine modelbuilding process.

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram of operation processing by the sensor basedstate prediction system.

FIG. 9 is a diagram depicting an exemplary interface.

FIG. 10 is a flow diagram of an example of sensor based risk profiling.

FIG. 11 is a block diagram of an system architecture.

FIG. 11A is a flow diagram of an example of sensor based riskassessment.

FIG. 12 is a flow diagram of an example of service record processing.

FIGS. 13A-13B is a flow diagram of an example of sensor based proximityrisk allocation.

FIG. 14 is a flow diagram of an example of sensor based augmented claimfiling.

FIG. 14A is a block diagram of an exemplary format of supplemental datato augment a claim form.

FIG. 15 is a flow diagram of an example of sensor based augmentedunderwriting

FIG. 16 is a block diagram of a sensor pack.

FIG. 17 is a flow diagram of an example process to determine specificconfigurations of sensor packs for specific applications.

FIG. 18 is a flow diagram of an example of using drift analysis forsensor based predictions of equipment failure.

FIG. 19 is a flow diagram of an example of sensor based process fordetermining risk profile, adjusting insurance premiums and collectingpremiums.

FIGS. 20A and 20B are flow diagrams of examples of processing for FIG.19.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Described herein are surveillance/intrusion/fire/access systems that arewirelessly connected to a variety of sensors. In some instances thosesystems maybe wired to sensors. Examples of detectors/sensors 28 (sensordetectors used interchangeably) include motion detectors, glass breakdetectors, noxious gas sensors, smoke/fire detectors, contact/proximityswitches, video sensors, such as camera, audio sensors such asmicrophones, directional microphones, temperature sensors such asinfrared sensors, vibration sensors, air movement/pressure sensors,chemical/electro-chemical sensors, e.g., VOC (volatile organic compound)detectors. In some instances, those systems sensors may include weightsensors, LIDAR (technology that measures distance by illuminating atarget with a laser and analyzing the reflected light), GPS (globalpositioning system) receivers, optical, biometric sensors, e.g., retinascan sensors, EGG/Heartbeat sensors in wearable computing garments,network hotspots and other network devices, and others.

The surveillance/intrusion/fire/access systems employ wireless sensornetworks and wireless devices, with remote, cloud-based servermonitoring and report generation. As described in more detail below, thewireless sensor networks wireless links between sensors and servers,with the wireless links usually used for the lowest level connections(e.g., sensor node device to hub/gateway).

In the network, the edge (wirelessly-connected) tier of the network iscomprised sensor devices that provide specific sensor functions. Thesesensor devices have a processor and memory, and may be battery operatedand include a wireless network card.

The edge devices generally form a single wireless network in which eachend-node communicates directly with its parent node in ahub-and-spoke-style architecture. The parent node may be, e.g., anetwork access point (not to be confused with an access control deviceor system) on a gateway or a sub-coordinator which is, in turn isconnected to the access point or another sub-coordinator.

Referring now to FIG. 1, an exemplary (global) distributed networktopology for a wireless sensor network 10 is shown. In FIG. 1 thewireless sensor network 10 is a distributed network that is logicallydivided into a set of tiers or hierarchical levels 12 a-12 c.

In an upper tier or hierarchical level 12 a of the network are disposedservers and/or virtual servers 14 running a “cloud computing” paradigmthat are networked together using well-established networking technologysuch as Internet protocols or which can be private networks that usenone or part of the Internet. Applications that run on those servers 14communicate using various protocols such as for Web Internet networksXML/SOAP, RESTful web service, and other application layer technologiessuch as HTTP and ATOM. The distributed network 10 has direct linksbetween devices (nodes) as shown and discussed below.

In one implementation hierarchical level 12 a includes a centralmonitoring station 49 comprised of one or more of the server computers14 and which includes or receives information from a sensor based stateprediction system 50 as will be described below.

The distributed network 10 includes a second logically divided tier orhierarchical level 12 b, referred to here as a middle tier that involvesgateways 16 located at central, convenient places inside individualbuildings and structures. These gateways 16 communicate with servers 14in the upper tier whether the servers are stand-alone dedicated serversand/or cloud based servers running cloud applications using webprogramming techniques. The middle tier gateways 16 are also shown withboth local area network 17 a (e.g., Ethernet or 802.11) and cellularnetwork interfaces 17 b.

The distributed network topology also includes a lower tier (edge layer)12 c set of devices that involve fully-functional sensor nodes 18 (e.g.,sensor nodes that include wireless devices, e.g., transceivers or atleast transmitters, which in FIG. 1 are marked in with an “F”), as wellas wireless sensor nodes or sensor end-nodes 20 (marked in the FIG. 1with “C”). In some embodiments wired sensors (not shown) can be includedin aspects of the distributed network 10.

In a typical network, the edge (wirelessly-connected) tier of thenetwork is largely comprised of devices with specific functions. Thesedevices have a small-to-moderate amount of processing power and memory,and often are battery powered, thus requiring that they conserve energyby spending much of their time in sleep mode. A typical model is onewhere the edge devices generally form a single wireless network in whicheach end-node communicates directly with its parent node in ahub-and-spoke-style architecture. The parent node may be, e.g., anaccess point on a gateway or a sub-coordinator which is, in turn,connected to the access point or another sub-coordinator.

Each gateway is equipped with an access point (fully functional sensornode or “F” sensor node) that is physically attached to that accesspoint and that provides a wireless connection point to other nodes inthe wireless network. The links (illustrated by lines not numbered)shown in FIG. 1 represent direct (single-hop MAC layer) connectionsbetween devices. A formal networking layer (that functions in each ofthe three tiers shown in FIG. 1) uses a series of these direct linkstogether with routing devices to send messages (fragmented ornon-fragmented) from one device to another over the network.

In some instances the sensors 20 are sensor packs (discussed below),which are configured for a particular types of business applications,whereas in other implementations the sensors are found in installedsystems such as the example security systems discussed below.

Referring to FIG. 2, a sensor device 20 is shown. Sensor device 20includes a processor device 21 a, e.g., a CPU and or other type ofcontroller device that executes under an operating system, generallywith 8-bit or 16-bit logic, rather than the 32 and 64-bit logic used byhigh-end computers and microprocessors. The device 20 has a relativelysmall flash/persistent store 21 b and volatile memory 21 c in comparisonwith other the computing devices on the network. Generally thepersistent store 21 b is about a megabyte of storage or less andvolatile memory 21 c is about several kilobytes of RAM memory or less.The device 20 has a network interface card 21 d that interfaces thedevice 20 to the network 10. Typically a wireless interface card isused, but in some instances a wired interface could be used.Alternatively, a transceiver chip driven by a wireless network protocolstack (e.g., 802.15.4/6LoWPAN) can be used as the (wireless) networkinterface. These components are coupled together via a bus structure.The device 20 also includes a sensor element 22 and a sensor interface22 a that interfaces to the processor 21 a. Sensor 22 can be any type ofsensor types mentioned above.

In some implementations, a pre-set suite of fixed/mobile sensor packs(discussed below) are used. These pre-set suite(s) of fixed/mobilesensor packs are especially selected for particular applicationsaccording to processing that is discussed below. In any event, eitherindividual sensors conventionally deployed throughout a premises or oneor more pre-set suite of fixed/mobile sensor packs are used.

Referring now to FIG. 3, an example application 30 of a security systemin particular an intrusion detection system 32 and access control system34 installed at a premises 36 is shown. In this example, the premises 36is a commercial premises, but the premises may alternatively be any typeof premises or building, e.g., industrial, etc. The intrusion detectionsystem 32 includes an intrusion detection panel 38 and sensors/detectors20 (FIGS. 1, 2) disbursed throughout the premises 36. The intrusiondetection system 32 is in communication with a central monitoringstation 49 (also referred to as central monitoring center) via one ormore data or communication networks 52 (only one shown), such as theInternet; the phone system or cellular communication system beingexamples of others. The intrusion detection panel 38 receives signalsfrom plural detectors/sensors 20 that send to the intrusion detectionpanel 38 information about the status of the monitored premises.

Sensor/detectors may be hard wired or communicate with the intrusiondetection panel 38 wirelessly. Some or all of sensor/detectors 20communicate wireless with the intrusion detection panel 18 and with thegateways. In general, detectors sense glass breakage, motion, gas leaks,fire, and/or breach of an entry point, and send the sensed informationto the intrusion detection panel 38. Based on the information receivedfrom the detectors 20, the intrusion detection panel 38 determineswhether to trigger alarms, e.g., by triggering one or more sirens (notshown) at the premises 36 and/or sending alarm messages to themonitoring station 20. A user may access the intrusion detection panel38 to control the intrusion detection system, e.g., disarm, arm, enterpredetermined settings, etc.

Also shown in FIG. 3 is a dispatch center 29 that in this example ispart of the central monitoring station 49. The dispatch center 29includes personnel stations (not shown), server(s) systems 14 running aprogram that populates a database (not shown) with historical data. Thecentral monitoring station 49 also includes the sensor based stateprediction system 50. An exemplary intrusion detection panel 38 includesa processor and memory, storage, a key pad and a network interface card(NIC) coupled via a bus (all not shown).

Referring now to FIG. 4, an exemplary access control system 34 is shown.

Access control systems can be installed in residences but are morecommonly installed in businesses. For example, as shown in FIG. 4A, aroom (partially shown) has a doorway and has associated therein anaccess controller 16 and one or two card readers 14, (e.g. an ingresscard reader and an egress card reader) with door locks (not shown)controlled by the access controller. The access control system 14 caninclude a plurality of access controllers and associated card readers,as shown in FIG. 4.

During installation of the access control system 34, the accesscontrollers 34 a are configured by a technician according to operationalrequirements of the facility. The access control system 34 also caninclude master access controllers 34 b and includes a gateway that iscoupled to the access controllers 34 a via one or more mastercontrollers 34 b, as shown. The access control system 34 also includesinfrastructure such as a LAN, router, modem, the Internet and cellularor serial communications and a firewall, as illustrated, and a server 14(FIG. 1) that is coupled to the gateway 35 a. This infrastructure can bepart of the wireless sensor network structure discussed in FIG. 1.

Referring now to FIG. 5, a sensor based state prediction system 50 isshown. The prediction system 50 executes on one or more of thecloud-based server computers and accesses database(s) 51 that sensordata and store state data in a state transition matrix. In someimplementations, dedicated server computers could be used as analternative.

The sensor based state prediction system 50 includes a StateRepresentation Engine 52. The State Representation Engine 52 executes onone or more of the servers described above and interfaces on the serversreceive sensor signals from a large plurality of sensors deployed invarious premises throughout an area. These sensor signals have sensorvalues and together with other monitoring data represent a data instancefor a particular area of a particular premises in a single point intime. The data represent granular information collected continuouslyfrom the particular premises. The State Representation Engine takesthese granular values and converts the values into a semanticrepresentation. For example, a set of sensor values and monitoring datafor particular time duration are assigned a label, e.g., “State-1.” Asthe data is collected continuously, this Engine 52 works in anunsupervised manner, as discussed below, to determine various statesthat may exist in the premises.

As the different states are captured, this Engine 52 also determinesstate transition metrics that are stored in the form a state transitionmatrix. A simple state transition matrix has all the states in its rowsand columns, with cell entries being many times did the premises movefrom a state in cell i to a state in cell j are over a period of timeand/or events. This matrix captures the operating behavior of thesystem. State transitions can happen either over time or due to events.Hence, the state transition metrics are captured using both time andevents. A state is a representation of a group of sensors groupedaccording to a clustering algorithm.

The State transition matrix is a data structure that stores how manytimes the environment changed from State_i to State_j. The Statetransition matrix thus stores “knowledge” that the sensor based stateprediction system 50 captures and which is used to determine predictionsof the behavior of the premises. The State transition matrix is accessedby the Next prediction engine to make decisions and trigger actions bythe sensor based state prediction system 50.

Unsupervised learning e.g., clustering is used to group sensor readingsinto states and conditions over a period of time that form a timetrigger state and over events to form an event trigger state. Used topopulate the state transition matrix per premises.

An exemplary simplified depiction for explanatory purposes of a Statetransition matrix is set out below:

State State State State State State Instance transition transitiontransition transition transition transition x,y x,y x,y x,y x,y x,y x,yx,y x,y x,y x,y x,y x,y x,y x,y x,y x,y x,y

Where columns in the State transition matrix is are “state transitions”expressed as a listing by instance with pointer to the state time andevent trigger tables.

Entries x,y in cells of the State transition matrix are pointers thatcorresponds to the trigger tables that store the number of time periodsand events respectively for each particular cell of the State transitionmatrix.

The State time trigger is depicted below. The State time trigger tracksthe time periods t1 . . . t8 for each state transition corresponding tothe number x in each particular cell.

t1 t2 t3 *** State State State Instance transition 1 transition 2transition 3 *** 1 1 1 *** 1 1 1 *** t1 t5 t2 t3 t4 t7 t8 ***

State event trigger tracks the events E1 . . . E2 for each statetransition corresponding to the number y in each particular cell (ifany).

e1 e2 e3 *** State State State Instance transition 1 transition 2transition 3 *** E2 *** E2 *** E1 E1 E3 ***

The State Representation Engine 52 in addition to populating the Statetransition matrix, also populates a State time trigger that is a datastructure to store, the time value spent in each state and adistribution of the time duration for each state. Similar to the Statetransition matrix, the State time trigger also encapsulates the behaviorknowledge of the environment. State transitions can be triggered usingthese values.

The State Representation Engine 52 also populates a State event trigger.The State event trigger is a data structure to store, event information.An example of an event can be sensor on a door sensing that a door wasopened. There are many other types of events. This data structurecaptures how many times such captured events caused a state transition.

The State Representation Engine 52 populates the State Transition matrixand the State Time and State triggers, which together capture metrics,which provide a

Knowledge Layer of the operational characteristics of the premises.

The sensor based state prediction system 50 also includes a Next StatePrediction Engine 54. The Next State Prediction Engine 54 predicts animmediate Next state of the premises based the state transition matrix.The Next State Prediction Engine 54 predicts if the premises will be ineither a safe state or a drift state over a time period in the future.

The term “future” as used herein refers to a defined window of time inthe future, which is defined so that a response team has sufficient timeto address a condition that is predicted by the Next State PredictionEngine 54 that may occur in the premises to restore the state of thepremises to a normal state. The Next State Prediction Engine operates asa Decision Layer in the sensor.

The sensor based state prediction system 50 also includes a StateRepresentation graphical user interface generator 56. StateRepresentation graphical user interface generator 56 provides agraphical user interface that is used by the response team tocontinuously monitor the state of the premises. The State Representationgraphical user interface generator 56 receives data from the Next StatePrediction Engine 54 to graphically display whether the premises iseither in the safe state or the drifting state. The State Representationgraphical user interface generator 56 operates as an Action Layer, wherean action is performed based on input from Knowledge and DecisionLayers.

The sensor based state prediction system 50 applies unsupervisedalgorithm learning models to analyze historical and current sensor datarecords from one or more customer premises and generates a model thatcan predict Next patterns, anomalies, conditions and events over a timeframe that can be expected for a customer site. The sensor based stateprediction system 50 produces a list of one or more predictions that mayresult in on or more alerts being sent to one more user devices as wellas other computing system, as will be described. The prediction system50 uses various types of unsupervised machine learning models includingLinear/Non-Linear Models, Ensemble methods etc.

Referring now to FIG. 5A, a logical view 50′ of the sensor based stateprediction system 50 is shown. In this view at the bottom is the rawevents layer that is the sensors values and monitoring data from theenvironment under surveillance. The middle layer is an abstraction layerthat abstracts these raw events as state (represented in FIG. 5A by theblocks “States” (State Representation Engine 52), STM (State TransitionMatrix), STT (State Time Trigger) and SET (State Event Trigger) thatproduce a state as a concise semantic representation of the underlyingbehavior information of the environment described by time and varioussensor values at that point in time. With the upper blocks being aDecisions block (Next State Prediction Engine 54) and Actions block(State Representation graphical user interface generator 56.)

Referring now to FIG. 6, the processing 60 for the State RepresentationEngine 52 is shown. The State Representation Engine 55 collects (e.g.,from the databases 51 or directly from interfaces on the servers)received sensor signals 62 from a large plurality of sensors deployed invarious premises throughout an area that is being monitored by thesensor based state prediction system 50. The sensor data collected fromthe premises, includes collected sensor values and monitoring datavalues.

An example of the sensor values is shown below (using fictitious data):

-   -   Site no.: 448192    -   Kitchen thermostat: 69,    -   Stove thermostat: 72,    -   Outdoor security panel: Active,    -   Kitchen Lights: On,    -   Delivery Door: Shutdown

As these sensor signals have sensor values that represent a datainstance for a particular area of a particular premises in a singlepoint in time, the State Representation Engine 52 converts 64 thissensor data into semantic representations of the state of the premisesat instances in time. The State Representation Engine 52 uses 66 theconverted sensor semantic representation of the sensor data collectedfrom the premises to determine the empirical characteristics of thepremises. The State Representation Engine 52 assigns 67 an identifier tothe state.

For example, the kitchen in a restaurant example for a premisesidentified in the system as “Site no.: 448192” uses the sensor values toproduce a first state that is identified here as “State 1.” Anylabelling can be used and is typically consecutive identified and thisstate is semantically described as follows:

-   -   State 1: Kitchen thermostat: 69, Stove thermostat: 72, Outdoor        security panel: Active, Kitchen Lights: On, Delivery Door:        Shutdown, current time: Monday 5:00 AM PST, start time: Sunday        10:00 PM PST

The semantic description includes the identifier “State 1” as well assemantic descriptions of the various sensors, their values and dates andtimes.

The State Representation Engine 52 determines an abstraction of acollection of “events” i.e., the sensor signals as state. The state thusis a concise representation of the underlying behavior information ofthe premises being monitored, described by time and data and varioussensor values at that point in time and at that date.

The semantic representation of the state is stored 68 by the StateRepresentation Engine 52 as state transition metrics in the StateRepresentation matrix. Over time and days, as the sensors producedifferent sensor values, the State Representation Engine 55 determinesdifferent states and converts these states into semantic representationsthat are stored the state transition metrics in the matrix, e.g., as ina continuous loop 70.

The kitchen example is further set out below: The State RepresentationEngine 52 collects the following data (fictitious data) from these threesensors at a particular points in time,

Obstruction Detector Room Thermostat Stove Thermostat 0 71.175573278.95655605 0 68.27180645 79.97821825 0 71.80483918 79.428149 070.46354628 81.90901291 0 69.83508114 81.12026772 0 71.4607406681.613552 1 70.14174204 80.12242015 1 70.98180652 78.03049081

The state representation engine 52, converts these raw values into statedefinitions and assigns (labels) each with a unique identifier for eachstate, as discussed above. As the premises is operated over a period oftime, the Next transition matrix, the state time trigger matrix and thestate event trigger matrix are filled.

Continuing with the concrete example, the state representation engine 52produces the following two states (State 1 is repeated here for clarityin explanation).

State 1: Kitchen thermostat: 69, Stove thermostat: 72, Outdoor securitypanel: Active, Kitchen Lights: On, Delivery Door: Shutdown, currenttime: Sunday 10:00 PM.

State 2: Kitchen thermostat: 69, Stove thermostat: 80, Outdoor securitypanel: Active, Kitchen Lights: On, Delivery Door: Shutdown, currenttime: Sunday 10:15 PM

State 3: Kitchen thermostat: 69, Stove thermostat: 60, Outdoor securitypanel: Active, Kitchen Lights: On, Delivery Door: Shutdown, currenttime: Monday 1:00 AM.

Between State 1 and State 2 there is a transition in which over a 15minute span the Stove thermostat value increased from 72 to 80 and fromState 2 to State 3 the Stove thermostat value decreased from 80 to 72over a 2 hr. and 45 min. period, which can likely be attributed tosomething being cooked between State 1 and State 2 and by State 3 theorder was filled, item removed from stove and the stove thermostat showsa lower value.

The state representation engine 52, adds to the state transition matrixan entry that corresponds to this transition, that the premises movedfrom state 1 to state 2. The state representation engine 52, also addsto the state transition matrix in that entry, an indicator that thetransition was “time trigger,” causing the movement, and thus the staterepresentation engine 52 adds an entry in state time trigger matrix. Thestate representation engine 52, thus co-ordinates various activitiesinside the premises under monitoring and captures/determines variousoperating characteristics of the premises.

Referring now to FIG. 7 processing 80 for the Next State PredictionEngine 54 is shown. This processing 80 includes training processing 80 a(FIG. 7A) and model building processing 80 b (FIG. 7B), which are usedin operation of the sensor based state prediction system 50.

Referring now to FIG. 7A, the training processing 80 a that is part ofthe processing 80 for the Next State Prediction Engine 54 is shown. InFIG. 7A, training processing 80′ trains the Next State Prediction Engine54. The Next State Prediction Engine 54 accesses 82 the state transitionmatrix and retrieves a set of states from the state transition matrix.From the retrieved set of states the Next State Prediction Engine 54generates 84 a list of most probable state transitions for a given timeperiod, the time period can be measured in minutes, hours, days, weeks,months, etc. For example, consider the time period as a day. After acertain time period of active usage, the sensor based state predictionsystem 50, through the state representation engine 52, has acquiredknowledge states s1 to s5.

From the state transition matrix the system uses the so called “Markovproperty” to generate state transitions. As known, the phrase “Markovproperty” is used in probability and statistics and refers to the“memoryless” property of a stochastic process.

From the state transition matrix using the so called “Markov property”the system generates state transition sequences, as the most probablestate sequences for a given day.

An exemplary sequence uses the above fictitious examples is shown below:

-   -   s1 s2 s4 s5    -   s2 s2 s4 s5

The Next State Prediction Engine 54 determines 86 if a current sequenceis different than an observed sequence in the list above. When there isa difference, the

Next State Prediction Engine 54 determines 88 whether something unusualhas happened in the premises being monitored or whether the statesequence is a normal condition of the premises being monitored.

With this information the Next State Prediction Engine 54 90 these statetransitions as “safe” or “drift state” transitions. Either the NextState Prediction Engine 54 or manual intervention is used to labeleither at the state transition level or the underlying sensor valuelevels (fictitious) for those state transitions producing the follow:

Obstruction Safety State Detector Room Thermostat Stove Thermostat(label) 0 71.1755732 78.95655605 G 0 68.27180645 79.97821825 G 071.80483918 79.428149 G 0 70.46354628 81.90901291 G 0 69.8350811481.12026772 G 0 71.46074066 81.613552 G 1 70.14174204 80.12242015 G 170.98180652 78.03049081 G 0 68.58285177 79.981358 G 0 69.9157180279.4885171 G 1 69.89799953 79.3838372 G 0 70.42668373 80.20397118 G 170.23391637 81.80212485 Y 0 68.19244768 81.19203004 G

The last column in the above table is the label, wherein in this example“G” is used to indicate green, e.g., a normal operating state, e.g., “asafe state” and “Y” is used to indicate yellow, e.g., an abnormal ordrift state, e.g., an “unsafe state” and “R” (not shown above) would beused to represent red or a known unsafe state. This data and states 92can be stored in the database 51 and serves as training data for amachine learning model that is part of the Next State RecommendationEngine 54.

Referring now to FIG. 7B, the model building processing 80 b of the NextState Recommendation Engine 54 is shown. The model building processing80 b uses the above training data to build a model that classify asystem's state into either a safe state or an unsafe state. Other statescan be classified. For example, three states can be defined, as above,“G Y R states” or green (safe state) yellow (drifting state) and red(unsafe state). For ease of explanation two states “safe” (also referredto as normal) and “unsafe” (also referred to as drift) are used. Themodel building processing 80 b accesses 102 the training data andapplies 104 one or more machine learning algorithms to the training datato produce the model that will execute in the Next State RecommendationEngine 54 during monitoring of systems. Machine learning algorithms suchas Linear models and Non-Linear Models, Decision tree learning, etc.,which are supplemented with Ensemble methods (where two or more modelsvotes are tabulated to form a prediction) and so forth can be used. Fromthis training data and the algorithms, the model is constructed 106.

Below is table representation of a fictitious Decision Tree using theabove fictitious data (again where “G” is used to indicate green, “asafe state” e.g., a normal operating state, and “Y” is used to indicateyellow, e.g., drifting state, and “R” (shown below) to represent red ora known unsafe state. This data and states can be stored in the database51 and serves as training data for a machine learning model that is partof the Next State Recommendation Engine 54.

-   -   stoveTtermoStat=‘(−inf−-81.064396]’    -   |obstructionDetector=0: G    -   |obstructionDetector=1: G    -   stoveThermoStat=‘(81.064396-84.098301]’    -   |obstructionDetector=0: G    -   |obstructionDetector=1:Y    -   stove ThermoStat=‘(84.098301-87.132207]’: R    -   stoveThermoStat=‘(87.132207-90.166112]’    -   |obstructionDetector=0: R    -   |obstructionDetector=1: R    -   stoveThermoStat=‘(90.166112-inf)’    -   |obstructionDetector=0: R    -   |obstructionDetector=1: R

Empirical characteristics can be a model based and human based aredetermined 106 for various states of the premises in terms of, e.g.,safety of the occupants and operational conditions of the varioussystems within the premises. Examples of such systems include intrusiondetection systems, fire alarm systems, public annunciation systems,burglar alarm systems, the sensors deployed at the premises, as well asother types of equipment, such as refrigeration equipment, stoves, andovens that may be employed in the kitchen example that will be discussedbelow. Other instances of particular premises will have other types ofsystems that are monitored. Based on the empirical determined states ofthe various systems within the premises being monitored, the sensorbased state prediction system 50 will determine the overall state of thepremises as well as individual states of the various systems within thepremises being monitored, as will be discussed below.

Referring now to FIG. 8, operational processiing 100 of the sensor basedstate prediction system 50 is shown. The sensor based prediction system50 receives 102 (by the State Representation Engine 52) sensor signalsfrom a large plurality of sensors deployed in various premisesthroughout an area being monitored. The State Representation Engine 52converts 104 the sensor values from these sensor signals into a semanticrepresentation that is identified, as discussed above. As the data iscollected continuously, this Engine 52 works in an unsupervised mannerto determine various states that may exist in sensor data being receivedfrom the premises. As the different states are captured, the StateRepresentation Engine 52 also determines 106 state transition metricsthat are stored in the state transition matrix using both time andevents populating the State time trigger and the State event trigger, asdiscussed above. The State transition matrix is accessed by the Nextprediction engine 54 to make decisions and trigger actions by the sensorbased state prediction system 50.

The Next State Prediction Engine 54 receives the various states (eitherfrom the database and/or from the State Representation Engine 52 andforms 108 predictions of an immediate Next state of the premises/systemsbased the state data stored in the state transition matrix. For suchstates the Next State Prediction Engine 54 predicts if the premises willbe in either a safe state or a drift state over a time period in theNext as discussed above.

The sensor based state prediction system 50 also sends 110 thepredictions to the

State Representation engine 56 that generates a graphical user interfaceto provide a graphical user interface representation of predictions andstates of various premises/systems. The state is tagged 112 and stored114 in the state transition matrix.

The sensor based state prediction system 50 using the StateRepresentation Engine 52 that operates in a continuous loop to generatenew states and the Next State

Prediction Engine 54 that produces predictions together continuallymonitor the premises/systems looking for transition instances thatresult in drift in states that indicate potential problem conditions. Asthe sensors in the premises being monitored operate over a period oftime, the state transition matrix, the state time trigger matrix and thestate event trigger matrix are filled by the state representation engine52 and the Next State

Prediction Engine 54 processing 80 improves on predictions.

The sensor based state prediction system 50 thus determines the overallstate of the premises and the systems by classifying the premises andthese systems into a normal or “safe” state and the drift or unsafestate. Over a period of time, the sensor based state prediction system50 collects information about the premises and the sensor based stateprediction system 50 uses this information to construct a mathematicalmodel that includes a state representation, state transitions and statetriggers. The state triggers can be time based triggers and event basedtriggers, as shown in the data structures above.

Referring now to FIG. 9, the State Representation graphical userinterface generator 56 receives data from the Next State PredictionEngine 54 and generates a graphical user interface that is rendered on adisplay device of a client system. Several different graphical userinterfaces can be generated. One such interface is depicted in FIG. 9and shows premises conditions at a fictitious e.g., restaurant chain offictitious restaurant locations (in Manhattan) with indicators (starsand squares) to indicated the predicted state of the premises as eitherin the safe state or the drifting state, respectively. Various shapes,colors and other effects can be used. The State Representation graphicaluser interface generator 56 operates as the Action Layer, where anaction is performed based on input from Knowledge and Decision Layers.

Referring now to FIG. 10, processing 120 of sensor information using thearchitecture above is shown. The sensor-based state prediction system 50receives 122 sensor data from sensors monitoring each physical object orphysical quantity from the sensors (FIG. 2) deployed in a premises. Thesensor-based state prediction system 50 is configured 124 with anidentity of the premises and the physical objects being monitored by thesensors in the identified premises. The sensor based state machine 50processes 126 the received sensor data to produce states as set outabove using the unsupervised learning models. Using these models thesensor-based state prediction system 50 monitors various physicalelements to detect drift states.

For example, one of the sensors can be a vibration sensor that sends thesensor-based state prediction system 50 a signal indicating a level ofdetected vibration from the vibration sensor. This signal indicates bothmagnitude and frequency of vibration. The sensor-based state predictionsystem 50 determines over time normal operational levels for that sensorbased on what system that sensor is monitoring and together with othersensors produces 128 series of states for the object and/or premises.These states are associated 130 with either a state status of “safe” or“unsafe” (also referred to herein as “normal” or “drift,” respectively).Part of this process of associating is provided by the learning processand this associating can be empirically determined based on human input.This processing thus develops more than a mere envelope or range ofnormal vibration amplitude and vibration frequency indications fornormal operation for that particular vibration sensor, but ratherproduces a complex indication of a premises or object state status bycombining these indications for that sensor with other indications fromother sensors to produce the state transition sequences mentioned above.States are produced from the unsupervised learning algorithms (discussedabove in FIGS. 7-7B) based on that vibration sensor and states fromother sensors, which are monitoring that object/premises. Theunsupervised learning algorithms continually analyze that collectedvibration data and producing state sequences and analyze state sequencesthat include that sensor. Overtime, as the analysis determines 134 thatstates including that sensor have entered into a drift state thatcorresponds to an unsafe condition, the sensor-based state predictionsystem 50 determines 136 a suitable action alert (in the Action layer)to indicate to a user that there may be something wrong with thephysical object being monitored by that sensor. The analysis provided bythe prediction system sends the alert to indicate that there issomething going wrong with object being monitored. The sensor-basedstate prediction system 50 produces suggested actions 138 that thepremises' owner should be taking with respect to the object beingmonitored.

Referring now to FIG. 11, an architecture 139 that combines thesensor-based state prediction system 50 (FIG. 5) in a cooperativerelationship with business application servers 139 a in the cloud isshown. In FIG. 11, the sensor-based state prediction system 50 receivessensor data from the sensor network 11 (or storage 51) for a particularpremises, processes that data to produce states and state sequences, anduses this information in conjunction with business application serversto process risk-based adjustments in insurance policy premiums,underwriting of insurance policies, and augmented claims submission forinsured events under an insurance policy. The sensor-based stateprediction system 50 includes a geographic proximity risk allocationmodule 180 (see processing 180′ FIGS. 13A, 13B), an augmented claimfiling module 220 (see processing 220′ FIG. 14) and an augmentedunderwriting module 250 (see processing 250′ FIG. 15).

Referring now to FIG. 11A, processing 140 in the sensor-based stateprediction system 50 includes providing a pre-set suite of sensor packs(discussed below) that are selected especially to collect data relevantto the type of business and relevant to the type of insurance beingprovided. (See discussion below regarding pre-set sensor packs). Thesensor-based state prediction system 50 receives the sensor information142 and constructs states based on analyzes of the sensor data andprovides the alert that is sent to the customer. That alert and selectedinformation either the state and/or sensor data are sent 144 to a“continuous risk assessment and allocation” module that assessesinsurance risk on a dynamic basis, as discussed below.

The risk assessment 146 can either be a risk assessment that is point intime based (e.g., the single episode discussed above) or the riskassessment can be continually based on the actions taken by the customerand the sensor data received. An example of risk assessment that ispoint in time based is for instance risk assessment that is based onchanges in the types of material that are housed in a premises orchanging of types of machinery being operated or disabled in thepremises or the types of activities that the premises are being usedfor. All of these changes can be monitored 148 by the sensor-based stateprediction system 50 from data received from one or more sensor packs.

The customized sensor packs that are deployed at customer premisesgather sensor data that are relevant to the type of insurance providedto the premises and the type of premises being insured. The sensor-basedstate prediction system 50 in addition to providing monitoring ofconditions at customer premises and generating alerts as needed,provides an architecture that can be used to change insurance rates onon-going basis.

Referring now to FIG. 12, processing by the sensor-based stateprediction system 50 can also include processing 160 of service recordsof equipment/systems. Technicians commonly service systems/equipment andas a result generate service records (historical records). These servicerecords are stored 162 in e.g., the database 51 or some other databaseaccessible by the sensor-based state prediction system 50. Thesensor-based state prediction system 50 retrieves 164 historical servicerecords from the database 51 according to the application. Typically,historical service records are available in multiple tables in anormalized form. Historical service records data are preprocessed 166from certain tables and certain columns to capture particulars datarelevant to the systems and needed by the unsupervised learningalgorithms.

In one example the following data are captured from service records.

Field Name Field Description

Customer No: Uniquely identifies a customer

Site No: Uniquely identifies a customer site/store

Region No: Sites are categorized into regions, this uniquely identifiesa region

Job No: Uniquely identifies a job

Date: Date job created

Job Cause Number: A number that identifies a particular reason why thejob was requested.

Job Cause Desc: A textual description of the job cause, for example,“Faulty part”

Resolution No: The resolution that was used to fix the problem.

Resolution Desc: A textual description of the fix.

Job Comments: A free text field, where the job done is described by thetechnician.

With an understanding of the above data, the sensor-based stateprediction system 50 generates reports 168 that can supplement certainuses of the sensor-based state prediction system 50, as discussed below.The sensor-based state prediction system 50 also processes 170 data fromthe service records using the unsupervised learning algorithms, asdiscussed below.

Referring now to FIG. 13, the sensor-based state prediction system 50includes a geographic proximity risk allocation module 180. Processing180 a has the geographic proximity risk allocation module 180 receive182 sensor data for each physical object or physical quantity beingmonitored based on one or more sets of data from the sensors (FIG. 2) orsensor packs (FIG. 16) that are deployed in many premises for manybusinesses. The sensor-based state prediction system 50 is configured184 with identities of the premises and the physical objects beingmonitored by each sensor in each of the identified premises. Thesensor-based state prediction system 50 is also configured 186 withnumerous recipient systems to which alerts are sent and insurancecarrier systems for continuous insurance monitoring, underwriting, andrating of some of the businesses. The sensor-based state predictionsystem 50 is also configured 188 with geographic location data for eachof the premises being monitored and is further configured 190 withgeographic information of nearby businesses that are not being monitoredby the prediction system 50.

The geographic proximity risk allocation module receives 192 results ofthe unsupervised learning models executing on the sensor-based stateprediction system 50. More particularly the sensor-based stateprediction system 50 that monitors for drift states in various physicalelements for at least some of the plurality of premises determines 194existence of such drift states over time. As the analysis determinesthat signals from one or more sensors have entered a drift statesequence, the sensor-based state prediction system 50 determines 196 asuitable action alert (based on that drift state sequence) to indicateto a user that there may be something wrong with the physical objectbeing monitored.

The sensor-based state prediction system 50 generates from the alertsand state data profiles for each current premises. The sensor-basedstate prediction system 50 produces for a given premises listings ofstate sequences that can be safe sequences and unsafe, i.e., driftsequences that can be predicted events, and which result in alerts beingsent with suggested actions that the premises' owner should take. Thesensor-based state prediction system 50 also tracks resolutions of thoseanomalies. The sensor-based state prediction system 50 thus producesprofiles based on the state sequences for each premises being monitored.

The geographic proximity risk allocation module 180 analyses 200 theseprofiles for geographic proximity among a group of business. That is,the sensor-based state prediction system 50 determines 202 for a currentpremises, other premises that are geographically proximate to thecurrent premises. The geographic proximity risk allocation module 180determines 204 potential effects on the current premises of determinedprofiles/drift state sequences of the other geographic proximatepremises. That is, for a determined profiles/drift state sequences, thegeographic proximity risk allocation module 180 (or the sensor-basedstate prediction system 50 proper) determines whether the determinedprofiles and/or drift state sequences of one or more of the othergeographic proximate premises have any relevance to a risk assessmentfor the current premises. Principally, this determination is based onexamining the state sequence to determine whether the drift statedetected is of a type that can have external effects on the currentpremises or whether the effects that result from the detected driftstate would be confined to the one or more geographically proximatepremises from which the detected drift state was produced. A secondprincipal determination is based on examining the state sequence todetermine whether the drift state detected from the one or moregeographically proximate premises, is of a type that is relevant to thetype or lines of insurance carried by the current premises. Otherdeterminations can be used. In any event, if so confined, the geographicproximity risk allocation module 180 can skip this drift state.

Based on either the determined profiles and or determined drift states,for determined profiles/drift state sequences that have relevance to therisk assessment of the current premises, the sensor-based stateprediction system 50 sends 206 messages to insurance carrier systems tocause rating systems to adjust rates upwards or downwards for thecurrent one (or more) of such premises (insured by such insurancecarriers) according to the state sequences generated by the geographicproximity risk allocation module based on state sequences for others ofgeographically proximate determined premises. That is, by using riskallocation data of customers in geographical proximity to each other,this data in the form of state sequences is used by automated riskassessment system to modify the risk assessments of the current premisesand hence insurance rates for the current business.

By geographic proximity is meant as a premises being within a definedphysical proximity to another premises and sharing a physical structure.Physical proximity can be bounded in various ways such as with aphysical distance, e.g., in a range of 0 feet up to, e.g., 500 feet, buttypically can be set in an insurance contract over a longer or shorterrange.

For example, an insured, monitored premises can be in a strip mall. Thisbusiness can be, e.g., a retail clothing store. In the strip mall inthis example is also a restaurant that has its kitchen being monitoredas per above. The sensor-based state prediction system 50 determines byanalyzing the profiles for geographic proximate group of business thatthis restaurant is not taking proper precautions regarding a monitoredpiece of equipment. This equipment could be any piece of equipment, forexample, an exhaust hood over a grill, which is full of grease or arefrigerator compressor motor that is overheating (because the door doesnot close properly), etc. The sensor-based state prediction system 50determines that the kitchen or the hood has entered a drift state basedon sensor readings from one or more sensors, (e.g., data from either oneor both of sensors that sensor hood temperature or compressortemperature or vibration). Thus, the sensor-based state predictionsystem 50 has determined that the current conditions now increase thelikelihood of a fire originating in the kitchen of that restaurant, thusincreasing the likelihood of a fire for all the businesses in that stripmall, including the clothing store. In that case, the sensor-based stateprediction system 50 determines that rates should rise for allbusinesses in that strip mall. When there is a resolution of theanomaly, either as verified or determined manually, or by removal of thedrift in the sensors, rates would be readjusted down. If, on the otherhand, all businesses in that strip mall are taking proper precautions,then the rates could fall. The risk is assessed collectively when thereexists a reasonable connection between the insurable risk posed by onecustomer that heightens or mitigates impact on the insurable risk ofother customers.

This profile data can also be used to build a community that findssimilarities between similar establishments. Again using restaurants asan example, the profile data can be used to access how all restaurantsfor a chain of restaurants rank relative to each other restaurants inthe restaurant chain.

Referring now to FIG. 14, the augmented claim filing module 220 (FIG.11) executes processing 220′ as shown. The sensor-based state predictionsystem 50 can be used in conjunction with an insurance claim module topopulate and submit an insurance claim or at least supportingdocumentation upon an occurrence of an insured event. The insuranceclaim module in the sensor-based state prediction system 50 receivessensor data 222 for each physical object or physical quantity beingmonitored based on one or more sets of data from sensors (FIG. 2) orsensor packs (FIG. 16). Upon the occurrence 224 of an event that resultsin an insurance claim, the insurance claim module 226 prepares anelectronic report that can be used to supplement or provide theinsurance claim.

The insurance claim module receives 228 a triggering message thattriggers the insurance claim module to prepare an insurance claim(s) onfor a business that suffered an insured loss. The insurance module istriggered by the sensor-based state prediction system 50 detecting astate indicative of a loss or by an owner or owner system starting ainsurance claim process. Upon receipt of the triggering message, theinsurance claim module parses 230 the triggering message to extractinformation regarding the insured loss to extract identifyinginformation regarding the premises that were insured, the nature of theloss, the insurance carrier, etc., as well as other generallyconventional information.

From this extracted generally conventional information the insuranceclaim module constructs 232 a request to the sensor-based stateprediction system 50 to extract 236 service and usage data for one ormore monitored units within the premises, and sends 234 the request tothe sensor-based state prediction system 50. In particular, thesensor-based state prediction system 50 extracts service record data foreach system within the premises, as well as states of thesystem/premises prior to the incident and/or actual sensor data ofsensors monitoring the system/premises prior to the incident.

The insurance claim module generates 238 an insurance claim form from atemplate form used by the insurance carrier for the particular premises.The insurance claim module 50 fills in the template with theconventional information such as the policy number, address,policyholder, etc. The insurance claim module however also provides 240either in the template form or as a supplemental form, the extractedoperational data for each specific piece of equipment based upon serviceand usage records retrieved from the database 51 and sensor states priorto and subsequent to the insured event. The format of this supplementalform can take various configurations. One such configuration is shown inFIG. 14A.

Referring now to FIG. 14A, the populated claim form (or the populatedsupplemental form, i.e., supporting documentation for the insuranceclaim form) is populated with the premises and system/equipment ID's andthe extracted operational data that shows operational performance of thesystem/equipment ID before the event and after the event. The populatedclaim form or the populated supplemental form, also will show whetherdamaged, monitored systems were running properly, properly servicedetc., based on actual sensor data and historical service record data, asinformation provided are the actual conditions of the premises asmeasured by the sensor data and the calculated states as determined bythe sensor based prediction system 50 showing the events before theinsured event happened and possibly during the insured event. This couldbenefit customer by yielding more accurate reimbursement of insurancefunds depending on the type of insurance coverage. Thus in FIG. 14A aset of records are provided for historical state transitions (severalbefore and during and after event, if any), sensor semantic records, andservice records all pertaining to the specific ID equipment/system.

Referring now to FIG. 15, the augmented underwriting module 250 (FIG.11) executing process 250′ for augmenting underwriting of insurancebased upon data received from the sensors and service records asdescribed above is shown. The augmented underwriting process 250 iscoupled to automated insurance underwriting systems that rate andunderwrite insurance policies. Thus, in addition to or rather thanmerely having a customer fill out an on-line Internet form or paper formfor applying for insurance and having that data used to underwrite,without any follow-up, the augmented underwriting insurance process 250provides a continuous underwriting process for insured premises thatverifies states and conditions of insured premises and insuredsystems/equipment.

The augmented underwriting process starts 252 with a customer applyingfor insurance through a conventional application and underwritingprocess. For an exemplary commercial customer, an insurance companyissues a policy that insures a commercial premises. The insurancecompany includes as a term in the policy a provision that allows theinsurance company to accept state data from a third party entity systemand/or sensor data and service record data that originate at the insuredpremises from the prediction system 50. The customer premises areconfigured to supply sensor data to the prediction system 50.

The augmented underwriting process receives 254 from the sensor-basedstate prediction system 50 that monitors for drift states in variousphysical elements state data and receives 256 historical service recordspertaining to insured equipment and or equipment being monitored.

Overtime, the sensor-based state prediction system 50 collects andanalyzes sensor data and collects service record data from the premises.The sensor-based state prediction system 50 monitors the sensor data 258from plural sensors for drift states in various physical systems for theinsured premises, and when sensor-based state prediction system 50determines existence of drift states, the sensor-based state predictionsystem 50 determines a suitable action alert (based on that drift state)to indicate to a user that there may be something wrong with thephysical object being monitored, as discussed above.

The augmented underwriting process receives the determined drift states(and/or alerts) and evaluates 260 these drift states (and/or alerts) inreal time against the particular insurance company's unique set ofunderwriting guidelines.

The automated underwriting system of a typical insurance company encodesthat insurance company's underwriting guidelines into a set ofunderwriting rules. This process uses the augmented underwriting processto augment this automated underwriting process of an insurance company.The augmented underwriting process has a set of augmented underwritingrules that are written based on the insurance companies underwritingguidelines. Using results that are processed from signals of the sensordevices the augmented underwriting process evaluates the set ofsensor-based underwriting rules against determined drift states receivedfrom the sensor-based state prediction system 50, as well as servicerecords, etc.

The sensor-based underwriting module augments the automated underwritingsystem used by the insurance company (or underwriting agent for theinsurance company). The sensor-based underwriting module can beassociated with the sensor-based state prediction system 50 or cangenerate data that is sent to an insurance company's automatedunderwriting system. In either event, whether the sensor-basedunderwriting module augments the automated underwriting system or isassociated with the sensor-based state prediction system 50, thesensor-based underwriting module may produce 262 underwriting changes.Underwriting changes, for example would be for conditions that increaserisk, as measured by the sensor-based underwriting rules, increases inrisk that are translated into increases in premiums. Conversely, forconditions that mitigate or reduce risk, as measured by sensor-basedunderwriting rules, decreases in risk are translated into eitherreductions in premiums and/or increases in insured coverage or otheradded value to the insured.

With any of the above approaches, specific sensor-based underwritingrules are generated for each insured item type and insurance line. Thesesensor-based underwriting rules are used to supplement the uniqueunderwriting guidelines for an insurance company. These sensor-basedunderwriting rules are evaluated against the predicted changes inconditions and/or alerts. These sensor-based underwriting rules areevaluated by the underwriting process on a continuous basis to assesson-going risk and exposures of customers based on the generated alertconditions, as measured against the company's unique underwritingguidelines. The underwriting process determines 264 a premium change forthe amount of coverage (or conversely could modify the amount ofcoverage for the premises based on the premium). The underwritingprocess accomplishes this determination based on a new measure of riskexposure resulting evaluation of the sensor-based underwriting rulesbased on sensor data/alerts provided from the above-described predictionsystem 50.

This dynamic underwriting risk analysis can tie alerts to a pricingtable (and or a coverage table) that produces percentage increases ordecreases in premiums (and/or coverage) according to the insurancecarrier's underwriting rules.

The customer acquires insurance coverage for a premises and equipment inthe premises. As each insurance company has its own set of underwritingguidelines to determine terms for issuance of the insurance, theinformation used depends on the type of coverage requested. Theguidelines are based on objective factors that insurers use to classifyrisks, which factors are based on historical experience. With thesensor-based underwriting module either associated with the sensor-basedstate prediction system 50 or which augments an insurance company'sautomated underwriting process underwriting risk can be more accuratelydetermined based on predicted actions derived from current sensorreadings.

Underwriting in addition to providing a decision whether to accept therisk, the amount of risk that would be accepted and a premium foraccepting that amount of risk, underwriting also provides variousexclusions that restrict or limit an insurance claim. Two types ofcategories of exclusion in insurance underwriting are moral hazard andcorrelated losses. A moral hazard can be considered as a condition wherethe consequences of the customer's actions are the responsibility of theinsurance company rather than the customer. That is by an insurancecompany insuring for moral hazard that decision can make the customermore likely to take unnecessary risks or actions.

The sensor-based underwriting module can assist insurance to avoidpaying for the consequences of reckless behavior by examining alertsthat result from such behavior. For example, alerts can constantly beraised for food storage or food preparation issues. Referringmomentarily back to FIG. 2, individual sensor devices were shown.

These sensor devices, whether wired or wireless were coupled to thenetwork and provides sensor data for the above applications. A preferredmanner for handling sensor monitoring is by use of “sensor packs.”

Referring now to FIG. 16, a sensor pack is shown. The concept of asensor pack uses the processing concepts discussed above in conjunctionwith FIGS. 5-8, as applied to individual business types and/orindividual business areas. In FIG. 16 is shown a specific sensor packthat has three sensor devices. Each of the sensor devices are ofdifferent types to sense different physical or thermal or chemical, etc.conditions. In this configuration the sensor pack is pre-configured fora specific business application and specific equipment. In FIG. 16, thethree sensors share common infrastructure, i.e., a common processordevice 21 a, e.g., a CPU, (or other type of controller device) thatexecutes under an operating system, generally with 8-bit or 16-bitlogic, as mentioned in FIG. 2, a relatively small flash/persistent store21 b and volatile memory 21 c, as discussed above. The device 20 has awireless network interface card 21 d that interfaces the device 20 tothe network 10. Alternatively, a transceiver chip driven by a wirelessnetwork protocol stack (e.g., 802.15.4/6LoWPAN) can be used as the(wireless) network interface. These components are coupled together viaa bus structure. The sensor element 22 and a sensor interface 22 ainterface to the processor 21 a. Sensors 22 can be of any type, but eachare of different types, albeit, there can be several sensor of the sametype within a pack provided that there are also sensors of differenttypes within that pack. As defined herein a sensor pack is apre-packaged group of sensors that have two or more different sensorelements to sense correspondingly two or more different properties,whether those properties are optical, thermal, physical, chemical, etc.parameters. A defined sensor pack is configured according to results ofthe now to be described risk analysis based on specific businessapplication process. Referring now to FIG. 17, specific configurationsof sensor packs are determined depending on the business segment. Aprocess 280 to determine specific sensor packs for specific businessunits will now be described. The architecture above (FIG. 5) allowscollected sensor information to be analyzed by the sensor basedprediction system 50. For certain types of units some sensor data may bemore relevant to detection of specific anomalies than other sensorsunits and according to execution of the machine learning algorithmsdiscussed above are more relevant to determine states, whether “safe”(normal) states or unsafe (drift) states. This recognition thus givesrise to the described sensor pack.

Test units at various locations or premises are selected. These testunits are existing customer sites of a specific type. For example, twosuch unit types are restaurant kitchens and warehouses. Within each typethere may be sub-types. For example there could be differences betweenfast food kitchens and higher-end steak houses. In addition, there couldbe differences between fast food kitchens in a national chain of fastfood restaurants and a local mom and pop fast food restaurant. Dependingon the sensor type, analysis of data and the need for specific types ofsensors will vary greatly.

The process starts 282 with a selection of a unit type. For the selectedunit type, sets of sensors are deployed 284 in several premises of thatunit type. Within a specific instance of a unit type several sets ofdifferent sensors are deployed. Some sensors are deployed to monitorspecific types of equipment, whereas other sensors are deployed tomonitor the general environment of the unit. For example, sensors can bedeployed in a plurality of different kitchens in different restaurants.For a specific kitchen, sensors can be deployed to monitor a pluralityof different equipment in the kitchens, e.g., exhaust hoods,refrigeration equipment, ovens, stoves, etc. The sensors are configured286 to connect with a gateway that sends sensor data from each sensor tothe prediction system 50. The types of sensors deployed can beubiquitous or can be selected based on some pre-existing notion of whatkinds of sensors would be most useful for a given business type.

After deployment of the sensors, the sensor-based state predictionsystem 50 receives 288 sensor data from each of the sensors for eachphysical object or physical quantity being monitored for each of theinstances of the establishments and based on the sets of data from thefixed/mobile sensors (FIG. 2) that are deployed in the premises, thesensor-based state prediction system 50 applies 290 the above mentionedunsupervised algorithm learning models to analyze the sensor data fromthe premises, which generates 292 sensor states and a state model thatcan predict Next states, e.g., patterns, anomalies, conditions andevents over a time frame that can be expected for the kitchen (generallyas described above). The model produces 294 a listing the sensor typesthat were used in the analysis. This listing determines which sensorsmost contribute to various predictions and which deployments contributemost to such predictions. The results of this analysis is thus a listingof sensor types for specific deployments and/or a listing of specificdeployments (which equipment to monitor and where to place sensors).Based on this testing, application specific types of sensor packs(and/or deployments) are determined for that unit type. The process isrepeated for each unit type (or unit sub-type) for which a specificsensor pack configuration for specific a business application isdesired.

In addition to producing recommendations on sensor types and deploymentsthe analysis results also include suggested “alerts” that would begenerated by the prediction system 50. Various types of premises, inaddition to restaurants and warehouses, can be analyzed in this mannerincluding large commercial facilities, such as office buildings, etc.The unsupervised algorithms produce states that are normal or safestates and drift or unsafe states as a self-learning outcome that resultfrom executing such algorithms using the sensor data. The results ofexecution of these unsupervised algorithms are these sensor states andstate sequences for the various units. From these states and statesequences, the sensor-based state prediction system 50 candetermine/detect drift states from which predictions and alerts areproduced. From this process, different configurations of sensor packsand correspondingly processing and infrastructure to support processingof sensor signals from these sensor packs, are provided 296 for specificunit types.

Referring now to FIG. 18, equipment failure prediction processing 300 isshown. The sensor-based state prediction system 50 by processing thesensor data and service records to determine normal operating ranges inequipment and determining drift information mentioned above can be usedto form predictions of when equipment service is coming due or whenequipment is about to fail.

The equipment failure prediction processing 300 can be part of thesensor based prediction system 50 that conducts an analysis of sensorsignals from deployed individual sensors and/or sensor packs to detectone or more drift states that predict potential equipment failure. As anexample, vibration and temperature sensors are used to determine when aparticular component is about to fail. Sensor packs are disposed aboutthe premises and either in proximity to high-value equipment that isdefined as equipment that is specifically insured or equipment whosefailure can result in insured losses or specifically disposed to monitorsuch high-value equipment.

The equipment failure prediction processing 300 receives 302 from thesensor based prediction system sensors state and state transition dataresulting from the processing of FIG. 5, et seq.,) from the sensor packssignals that monitor specific equipment. In the example described, someof these signals can be from the vibration sensor and thermal sensors.The vibration sensors can sense vibrations produced by mechanicalequipment, whereas the thermal sensors produce signals proportional totemperatures of such equipment.

The equipment failure prediction processing 300 examines 304 sensorsstates according to equipment and these states and according to resultsof the unsupervised learning models, and over time the sensor-basedstate prediction system 50 detects drift states in the vibration andthermal sensor signals. Based on detecting a drift state or states, thesensor-based state prediction system 50 determines 306 a prediction anda suitable action alert to send to a user device/system.

When a failure is predicted, an alert is sent 310 to the equipment ownerto schedule a service call. This failure prediction can also be sent bythe sensor-based state prediction system 50 to a sensor-basedunderwriting module (as discussed above) for either modification ofinsurance rates or possibly other action such as notice of insurancepotential insurance cancelation absent rectification of the alertedcondition.

Referring now to FIG. 19, a service server 320 for continual adjustmentof insurance rates based on analysis of sensor data and continual policypremium aggregation is shown. The service server 320 executes on one ormore computer servers that may or may not be part of the “cloud”(FIG. 1) and which receives for a specific premises or a specific groupof related premises, sensor states from an associated state transitionmatrix (e.g., on storage 51) for that specific premises or the specificgroup of related premises. The service server 320 includes processors322 coupled to memory 324 and storage 326. The service server 320 iscoupled to the sensor-based state prediction system 50 via a network(not shown) to receive alerts generated by sensor-based state predictionsystem 50. These alerts are messages that result from continuousanalysis using the unsupervised learning models in the sensor-basedstate prediction system 50 that continually monitors for drift states ofphysical elements and/or premises.

The service server 320 receives alerts include the analysis results ofthe determined drift states that indicate specific events at themonitored premises (or group of premises). As mentioned, thesensor-based state prediction system 50 also produces suggested actionsfor the premises owner should be taking with respect to the object beingmonitored. The suggested actions are tracked by the sensor-based stateprediction system 50, as are results of corrective actions taken. Onetechnique for tracking corrective actions is to provide a mechanismthrough which the premises owner provides proof of the correctiveaction. Another way to track corrective actions is to infer completionof the corrective action by virtue of states of the premises (orspecific equipment) returning to a safe or normal state.

Both the alerts and optionally selected information either the statesand/or raw sensor data are sent to a continuous risk assessment andallocation module 330 that is operated by the service server 300. Thecontinuous risk assessment and allocation module 330 determinesinsurance risk based on the alerts generated from the sensor-based stateprediction system, which are evaluated by continuous risk assessment andallocation module 330 with respect to sensor based risk assessment rules338. The sensor based risk assessment rules 338 can be of various typesand are modeled after an insurance carrier's risk factors, but which aremodified so as to take into account the dynamic changing conditions at apremises as measured by the alerts, sensor states and drift states.

These alerts are evaluated on a dynamic basis by the continuous riskassessment and allocation module 330. The continuous risk assessment andallocation module 330 parses the alerts to extract semantic informationthat is evaluated against the risk assessment rules 338 of the insurancecarrier to determine increases to risk with respect to existingconditions at the premises as measured by the alerts, sensor states anddrift states. Concomitant therewith the continuous risk assessment andallocation module 330 uses the extracted information from the alerts,etc., which is evaluated against the risk assessment rules 338 todetermine decreases in risk based on existing conditions at the premisesas measured by the alerts, sensor states and drift states. Alerts areevaluated for presence of corrective actions that decrease risk orabsence of drift conditions that provide an overall lower risk profilethan a previous risk profile (e.g., an initial profile or an olderprofile).

An example of a particular rule that is a risk assessment rules 338 willnow be described. Assume that as part of the underwriting rules of aninsurance carrier there is a rule that does not provide insurancecoverage or produces a premium increase (per X amount of dollarcoverage) to kitchens where there are more than five stoves that producean aggregate of M British Thermal Units (BTU's) of heat. An exemplaryrule that is a risk assessment rules 338 that is sensor based andevaluates a state condition or a drift state against this exemplaryassessment rule

-   -   Rule total BTU<M BTU

The sensor based prediction engine 50 forms a state sequence S34 S24S60. Assume for the example that this sequence indicates that the heatbeing generated by the stoves in the kitchen exceed M BTU. This rulewould be evaluated by the continuous risk assessment and allocationmodule 330 to modify either coverage or pricing. Thus the assessmentrules 338 are based on the carrier's underwriting rules, but modified touse as inputs to the rules, either raw sensor data or state sequences.

These risk changes are sent to a premium adjustment module 340, whichconverts the risk changes into a value that is used to access a pricingtable 342 (or coverage table not shown) and produce a policy premiumenhancer amount that is added to (for increases in risk) or subtracted(for decreases in risk) from a base policy premium (or produces acoverage enhancer to modify coverage amounts). The conversion isperformed in accordance with assessment rules 338. The policy premiumenhancers are adjustment values either positive to increase a premium ornegative to decrease a premium that are collected and aggregated by apolicy premium collector 346 module.

The policy premium collector 346 module is a structure that periodicallycredits and debit changes to the policy premium for a particular policyfor a particular premises (or group of premises) based on theaforementioned modules 334, 340, 342, etc., and which periodically sendsthese changes to a policy holder system. The policy premium collector346 determines an actual amount for the policy at periodic points intime, e.g., monthly, during the term of the policy, and sends messageshaving these amounts out for delivery to the policy holder for eithercredit or debit to the policy holder.

Referring now to FIGS. 20A and 20B, the risk assessment can be a riskassessment that is point in time based (e.g., the single episodediscussed above) and/or the risk assessment can be continuous.Generally, there can be two types of risk assessments that are based ona classification of risk. One type, such as the point in time basedassessment is a risk assessment that results in an adjustment inpremiums contemporaneous with receiving of alert.

As example of the processing 380 performed by the service server 330 foran adjustment in premiums contemporaneous with receiving of alert isshown in FIG. 20A.

Service server 330 while rating a warehouse (not shown) receives 382 analert that indicates that the warehouse is currently storing fireworksor other hazardous materials (as determined by one or more chemicalsensors, for instance) for a day or week, but temporally. Upon receiptof the alert, the alert is parsed to provide a semantic indicator thatis used in evaluation 384 of the risk exposure for the facilitypresented with the new alert. That is, based on the alert, a new riskassessment is determined and concomitant therewith this new riskassessment is evaluated 386 against existing policy exclusions todetermine whether the new risk assessment is within the policy coverageor whether it is excluded. The service server 300 determines 388 newpolicy premiums for that policy (e.g., via modules 340 and 342 FIG. 19)when the new risk assessment is within the policy coverage and sends 390the determined premiums to the policy premium collector module 346,whereas when the service server determines that the new risk assessmentis for an existing policy exclusion, the service server sends 392 amessage to the policy holder indicating that there is no coverage forthe new risk under the policy based on exclusion terms of the policy.

The new policy premiums for the policy when the new risk assessment iswithin the policy coverage are determined by accessing the policypricing table that stores policy premium enhancers (changes in premiumsper base amount of coverage) as discussed above.

As shown in FIG. 20B, a second type of classification of risk is a typewhere upon receipt of the alert, the carrier delays charging of newpremiums giving the policy holder time to correct the conditions thatcaused determination of the alert. In this instance, the processing 400performed by the service server 300 includes receiving 402 an alerteither the new risk assessment is determined and evaluated to determinea new premium enhancer generally as discussed above (which assessment isdelayed) or the determination is delayed. The delay is for a set amountof time/days to enable corrective action by the owner. In any event,upon expiration of the set delay period (fixed in the policy) if nocorrective action has been taken, the policy premium enhancer isapplied. Corrective action is verified by receipt by service server 300of state messages indicating that the premises has re-entered a safe ornormal state. The service server 300 receives various policy premiumenhancers for that policy based on new risk assessments and correctionsto risk assessments, and determines new policy premiums and sends thedetermined new premiums to the policy premium collector module 346 thatsends the new policy premium charges to the policy holder on a periodicbases along with reports showing application of the policy enhancersbased on received states.

Various combinations of the above described processes are used toimplement the features described.

Servers interface to the sensor based state prediction system 50 via acloud computing configuration and parts of some networks can be run assub-nets. In some embodiments, the sensors provide in addition to sensordata, detailed additional information that can be used in processing ofsensor data evaluate. For example, a motion detector could be configuredto analyze the heat signature of a warm body moving in a room todetermine if the body is that of a human or a pet. Results of thatanalysis would be a message or data that conveys information about thebody detected. Various sensors thus are used to sense sound, motion,vibration, pressure, heat, images, and so forth, in an appropriatecombination to detect a true or verified alarm condition at theintrusion detection panel.

Recognition software can be used to discriminate between objects thatare a human and objects that are an animal; further facial recognitionsoftware can be built into video cameras and used to verify that theperimeter intrusion was the result of a recognized, authorizedindividual. Such video cameras would comprise a processor and memory andthe recognition software to process inputs (captured images) by thecamera and produce the metadata to convey information regardingrecognition or lack of recognition of an individual captured by thevideo camera. The processing could also alternatively or in additioninclude information regarding characteristic of the individual in thearea captured/monitored by the video camera. Thus, depending on thecircumstances, the information would be either metadata received fromenhanced motion detectors and video cameras that performed enhancedanalysis on inputs to the sensor that gives characteristics of theperimeter intrusion or a metadata resulting from very complex processingthat seeks to establish recognition of the object.

Sensor devices can integrate multiple sensors to generate more complexoutputs so that the intrusion detection panel can utilize its processingcapabilities to execute algorithms that analyze the environment bybuilding virtual images or signatures of the environment to make anintelligent decision about the validity of a breach.

Memory stores program instructions and data used by the processor of theintrusion detection panel. The memory may be a suitable combination ofrandom access memory and read-only memory, and may host suitable programinstructions (e.g. firmware or operating software), and configurationand operating data and may be organized as a file system or otherwise.The stored program instruction may include one or more authenticationprocesses for authenticating one or more users. The program instructionsstored in the memory of the panel may further store software componentsallowing network communications and establishment of connections to thedata network. The software components may, for example, include aninternet protocol (IP) stack, as well as driver components for thevarious interfaces. Other software components suitable for establishinga connection and communicating across network will be apparent to thoseof ordinary skill.

Program instructions stored in the memory, along with configuration datamay control overall operation of the system. Servers include one or moreprocessing devices (e.g., microprocessors), a network interface and amemory (all not illustrated). Servers may physically take the form of arack mounted card and may be in communication with one or more operatorterminals (not shown). An example monitoring server is a

SURGARD™ SG-System III Virtual, or similar system.

The processor of each monitoring server acts as a controller for eachmonitoring server, and is in communication with, and controls overalloperation, of each server. The processor may include, or be incommunication with, the memory that stores processor executableinstructions controlling the overall operation of the monitoring server.Suitable software enable each monitoring server to receive alarms andcause appropriate actions to occur. Software may include a suitableInternet protocol (IP) stack and applications/clients.

Each monitoring server of the central monitoring station may beassociated with an IP address and port(s) by which it communicates withthe control panels and/or the user devices to handle alarm events, etc.The monitoring server address may be static, and thus always identify aparticular one of monitoring server to the intrusion detection panels.Alternatively, dynamic addresses could be used, and associated withstatic domain names, resolved through a domain name service.

The network interface card interfaces with the network to receiveincoming signals, and may for example take the form of an Ethernetnetwork interface card (NIC). The servers may be computers,thin-clients, or the like, to which received data representative of analarm event is passed for handling by human operators. The monitoringstation may further include, or have access to, a subscriber databasethat includes a database under control of a database engine. Thedatabase may contain entries corresponding to the various subscriberdevices/processes to panels like the panel that are serviced by themonitoring station.

All or part of the processes described herein and their variousmodifications (hereinafter referred to as “the processes”) can beimplemented, at least in part, via a computer program product, i.e., acomputer program tangibly embodied in one or more tangible, physicalhardware storage devices that are computer and/or machine-readablestorage devices for execution by, or to control the operation of, dataprocessing apparatus, e.g., a programmable processor, a computer, ormultiple computers. A computer program can be written in any form ofprogramming language, including compiled or interpreted languages, andit can be deployed in any form, including as a stand-alone program or asa module, component, subroutine, or other unit suitable for use in acomputing environment. A computer program can be deployed to be executedon one computer or on multiple computers at one site or distributedacross multiple sites and interconnected by a network.

Actions associated with implementing the processes can be performed byone or more programmable processors executing one or more computerprograms to perform the functions of the calibration process. All orpart of the processes can be implemented as, special purpose logiccircuitry, e.g., an FPGA (field programmable gate array) and/or an ASIC(application-specific integrated circuit).

Processors suitable for the execution of a computer program include, byway of example, both general and special purpose microprocessors, andany one or more processors of any kind of digital computer. Generally, aprocessor will receive instructions and data from a read-only storagearea or a random access storage area or both. Elements of a computer(including a server) include one or more processors for executinginstructions and one or more storage area devices for storinginstructions and data. Generally, a computer will also include, or beoperatively coupled to receive data from, or transfer data to, or both,one or more machine-readable storage media, such as mass storage devicesfor storing data, e.g., magnetic, magneto-optical disks, or opticaldisks.

Tangible, physical hardware storage devices that are suitable forembodying computer program instructions and data include all forms ofnon-volatile storage, including by way of example, semiconductor storagearea devices, e.g., EPROM, EEPROM, and flash storage area devices;magnetic disks, e.g., internal hard disks or removable disks;magneto-optical disks; and CD-ROM and DVD-ROM disks and volatilecomputer memory, e.g., RAM such as static and dynamic RAM, as well aserasable memory, e.g., flash memory.

In addition, the logic flows depicted in the figures do not require theparticular order shown, or sequential order, to achieve desirableresults. In addition, other actions may be provided, or actions may beeliminated, from the described flows, and other components may be addedto, or removed from, the described systems. Likewise, actions depictedin the figures may be performed by different entities or consolidated.

Elements of different embodiments described herein may be combined toform other embodiments not specifically set forth above. Elements may beleft out of the processes, computer programs, Web pages, etc. describedherein without adversely affecting their operation. Furthermore, variousseparate elements may be combined into one or more individual elementsto perform the functions described herein.

Other implementations not specifically described herein are also withinthe scope of the following claims.

1-12. (canceled)
 13. One or more non-transitory computer-readablestorage media for predicting insurable events having instructions storedthereon that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one ormore processors to: retrieve, from devices monitoring a space, dataassociated with operation of the space; iteratively execute a firstunsupervised learning algorithm to generate, based on the data, statesand state transitions representing the space, wherein the states includeoperational characteristics associated with the space; iterativelyexecute a second algorithm to generate, based on the states and statetransitions, a model of the space, wherein the model includes statesequences associated with a status of the space; and in response todetermining, based on the state sequences, a particular status of thespace, transmit a notification.
 14. The one or more non-transitorycomputer-readable storage media of claim 13, wherein the data includesinformation associated with equipment in the space, and wherein theoperational characteristics include a level of functionality associatedwith the equipment.
 15. The one or more non-transitory computer-readablestorage media of claim 13, wherein the status is one of a safe status oran unsafe status, and wherein the notification includes an indication ofthe unsafe status.
 16. The one or more non-transitory computer-readablestorage media of claim 13, wherein the notification includes anindication of an actual or predicted insurable event associated with thespace.
 17. The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storagemedia of claim 13, wherein the model includes a state transition matrixincluding the states and state transitions and a triggering matrixincluding triggering characteristics associated with the statetransitions.
 18. The one or more non-transitory computer-readablestorage media of claim 17, wherein the triggering characteristicsindicate whether the state transitions are event triggered or timetriggered.
 19. The one or more non-transitory computer-readable storagemedia of claim 13, wherein transmitting the notification includesmodifying guidelines associated with an insurance policy.
 20. The one ormore non-transitory computer-readable storage media of claim 13, whereinat least one of the space or equipment in the space is covered by aninsurance policy, and wherein transmitting the notification includesgenerating information associated with the insurance policy.
 21. Amethod for predicting insurable events, comprising: retrieving, fromdevices monitoring a space, data associated with operation of the space;iteratively executing a first unsupervised learning algorithm togenerate, based on the data, states and state transitions representingthe space, wherein the states include operational characteristicsassociated with the space; iteratively executing a second algorithm togenerate, based on the states and state transitions, a model of thespace, wherein the model includes state sequences associated with astatus of the space; and in response to determining, based on the statesequences, a particular status of the space, transmitting anotification.
 22. The method of claim 21, wherein the data includesinformation associated with equipment in the space, and wherein theoperational characteristics include a level of functionality associatedwith the equipment.
 23. The method of claim 21, wherein the status isone of a safe status or an unsafe status, and wherein the notificationincludes an indication of the unsafe status.
 24. The method of claim 21,wherein the notification includes an indication of an actual orpredicted insurable event associated with the space.
 25. The method ofclaim 21, wherein the model includes a state transition matrix includingthe states and state transitions and a triggering matrix includingtriggering characteristics associated with the state transitions. 26.The method of claim 25, wherein the triggering characteristics indicatewhether the state transitions are event triggered or time triggered. 27.The method of claim 21, wherein transmitting the notification includesmodifying guidelines associated with an insurance policy.
 28. The methodof claim 21, wherein at least one of the space or equipment in the spaceis covered by an insurance policy, and wherein transmitting thenotification includes generating information associated with theinsurance policy.
 29. A system for predicting insurable eventscomprising a processing circuit including a processor and memory, thememory having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by theprocessor, cause the processing circuit to: retrieve, from devicesmonitoring a space, data associated with operation of the space;iteratively execute a first unsupervised learning algorithm to generate,based on the data, states and state transitions representing the space,wherein the states include operational characteristics associated withthe space; iteratively execute a second algorithm to generate, based onthe states and state transitions, a model of the space, wherein themodel includes state sequences associated with a status of the space;and in response to determining, based on the state sequences, aparticular status of the space, transmit a notification.
 30. The systemof claim 29, wherein transmitting the notification includes modifyingguidelines associated with an insurance policy.
 31. The system of claim29, wherein at least one of the space or equipment in the space iscovered by an insurance policy, and wherein transmitting thenotification includes generating information associated with theinsurance policy.
 32. The system of claim 29, wherein the notificationincludes an indication of an actual or predicted insurable eventassociated with the space.